Filed under: Election 2008 | Tags: Barack Obama, Election 2008, John McCain, Polling
Obama has maintained his slight lead in Virginia since the last time we took a look (in the first edition of Stampede!), with Obama at 49%, with McCain trailing at 47%. Still within the margin of error and still under 50%, but just 4% find themselves undecided at this point, an unusually low number at this point in the campaign.
Some other interesting numbers:
- McCain is still polling over 25% of African-Americans, indicating that perhaps Obama is having some problems connecting with those in the Black community who have more conservative views on faith, abortion, and gay marriage.
- Currently Obama has only 79% of Virginia Democrats behind him, versus 86% of Republicans throwing in behind McCain
- 51% of Virginias attended Church Services regularly, and amongst these voters McCain has a 13 point lead
- The poll found that 43% of Virginians described themselves as Democrats, versus 31% for us and 23% independent. Expect this finding to be heavily scrutinized across the blogosphere
- McCain maintains a solid lead in the Shenandoah region at 61%. President Bush got 63% last time in the Sixth (and the Shenandoah region for SurveyUSA extends beyond the 6th), but 4% remain undecided
All in all, a little disappointing, but there remains alot of room for movement. Additionally, there’s some questionable findings elsewhere in the poll and this thing is under the margin of error, so essentially, Virginia remains firmly in toss-up territory.
Which makes it all the more important that we get cracking on our phone banks and walking. In Virginia individuals do not register by party, so the only way outside of ids from primaries (and they see very low turnout) to get a clear of id of who’s who is to ask the people. Always a difficult endeavor, but it’s the only way, plus with the intensity of the race, people have opinions and are willing to talk.
Anyone interested in phone banking can join us July 9th at United Country Real Estate on July 9th. If that doesn’t fit into your schedule, please let me know. I have call sheets rip roaring ready to go.
Craig Orndorff (firstname.lastname@example.org) (540) 436-3530
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